what is happening in syria right now is chaotic on every level. in the streets and in the government. and it is deadly. more than 40,000 people have been killed. according to human rights groups. when i have that much chaos and that much destruction and so many possible branching outcomes with this many lives at stake, you turn to an expert. and we have one. joining us now from cairo is ayman mohyeldin, foreign correspondent for nbc news. thank you. it's great to see you tonight. >> thanks, ezra. >> give me your broader take for a minute. where are we on the scale of regime collapse? >> wow, that's a very tough question. i think by anyone's estimates including intelligence analysis and even opposition activists it's very difficult to gauge that. those who are fighting on the ground will tell you that in the last few weeks there have been significant gains and many people have used the expression "this is the beginning of the end," not the end but the beginning of the end. how long that lasts for depends on all kinds of variables. but the term is b